Colombian coffee is an indisputable quality reference in international markets, but behind each exported sac there is a structural vulnerability that threatens the foundations of the sector: our high dependence on foreign inputs. In a global scenario marked by geopolitical crises, logistical disruptions and increasingly stringent environmental demands, the competitiveness of our agro-industry is on the test. To protect Colombia and to ensure the future of the situation in the face of these external shocks requires rethinking our productive base. It is here that the transition to green fertilizers emerges not only as an ecological imperative, but as a strategic tool to arouse profitability, recover agricultural sovereignty and consolidate the leadership of our exports.
The economic viability of the Colombian situation is closely linked to the international market for agricultural inputs. Historically, Colombia and Latin America have a structural deficit in the production of chemical synthesis fertilizers, according to the H initiative2-dimple, about 80% of the nitrogenated fertilizers it consumes, up to 90% for Colombia, are imported. National customs record that the vast majority of these volumes come from regions outside Latin America, concentrating on suppliers located in Eastern Europe, North America and Asia. This high dependence on trans-continental markets creates constant pressure on the trade balance of the agro-industrial sector and exposes production and export agencies to high vulnerability to exchange rate volatility.
According to H2-dimple, Latin America currently accounts for only 6.4% of the total ammonia production (NH3), in addition to having a small portion of urea plants, none of which is found in Colombia. In 2022, structural dependence on imported agroinputs generated a deep trade deficit in Colombia, exacerbated by the historical peak in international contributions that raised the value of these imports to the record figure of1.193,3millions of dollars, dramatically increasing foreign exchange outflows.
Financial risk
The dependence on external suppliers conditions production costs to global geopolitical and logistical conditions. In recent years, the market has shown how international tensions and disruptions in maritime supply chains cause severe supply shocks.
A tangible example of this macroeconomic vulnerability materialized in 2022, when the escalation of the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine triggered an unprecedented supply shock in the agroinputs market. As Eastern Europe is one of the main global export cores of natural gas and synthesized fertilizers, the disruption of its logistics chains and the consequent trade restrictions caused a severe contraction in global supply. Between Russia and Belarus they provided almost 20% of the fertilizers made from nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium. In addition,Russiait supplied 16% of the world urea. On the other hand, China, which exported about 12% of the fertilizers, closed its sales abroad as a measure to ensure its internal supply. This situation resulted in an exponential and sudden increase in international contributions of urea and other nitrogenated compounds.
For the agricultural sector, this dependence on transcontinental markets immersed in high geopolitical volatility led to an immediate increase in production costs. These restrictions on the availability of urea and phosphates result in exponential increases in domestic fertilizer prices, directly affecting the cost of coffee produced. From a financial perspective, the inability to control the cost of these primary inputs reduces the producer's operating margins and transfers inflationary pressures across the entire export marketing chain. This is evidence of the structural need to diversify supply sources and explore local fertilization alternatives to protect the producer's financial margin.
Environmental impact
Beyond financial risk, the production and long-term use of traditional fertilizers (based on synthetic nitrogen) generates environmental externalities that are currently being audited on international markets. The production of the commercial urea requires two fundamental inputs: nitrogen, captured directly from the atmosphere, and hydrogen, extracted from fossil fuels such as natural gas. The chemical fusion of both elements results in ammonia (NH)3), the primary compound which is later transformed into urea.
Intensive use of these chemicals contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions. Global ammonia production generates 1% of global CO2 emissions. In contrast, green fertilizers drastically reduce the carbon footprint of the crop.
The Alternative
The structural innovation of green fertilizers lies in the modification of the hydrogen source; instead of relying on natural gas, this model removes hydrogen from water molecules through renewable (wind and solar) electrolysis processes. This technological transition allows synthesizing the same ammonia and the same urea required by the crops, but eliminating the dependence on imported hydrocarbons and removing the carbon footprint associated with their manufacture.
This agronomic transition is essential to align the Colombian export supply with the new sustainability standards required by blocks such as the European Union.
To mitigate this macroeconomic and environmental vulnerability, the country has begun to structure initiatives aimed at the local production of new-generation fertilizers. At the industrial level, the exploratory projects of the Colombian energy sector for the production of green ammonia from renewable hydrogen, which would allow for the synthesis of nitrogenated fertilizers without dependent on imported fossil fuels. The anti-Puerto Rican start-up Hevolución is developing a pioneering project in Latin America that seeks to produce green fertilizers from renewable hydrogen. The initiativeLow Coffee in Carbonout ofYara Colombiais able to reduce the carbon footprint of coffee by up to 60% by using fertilizers made from renewable energy.
The transition to sustainable fertilization schemes and the mitigation of the risks associated with the import of inputs are key factors in protecting the profitability of the sector in the next decade. Addressing the dependence on chemical fertilizers and structuring resilient supply chains adapted to global environmental standards will be central issues for discussion during the96th Coffee Summit, to be done on daysNovember 5 and 6, 2026 in Cartagena, Colombia. This institutional scenario will provide the export chain actors with the necessary analytical tools to anticipate the shocks of the international market and to consolidate production models to ensure long-term competitiveness.
