Coffee Conjuncture Inform

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During the first quarter of 2019 the international price of coffee in the futures market continued showing a volatile and descending behavior. The price of soft coffee in the New bag
 York at the end of the quarter was 5.0% lower than the initial price of the period (US ¢ 99.50 / lb vs. US ¢ 94.50 / lb).
 Meanwhile, the Colombian coffee premium increased 24.0%, from US ¢ 19.48 / lb to US ¢ 24.14 / lb, due to lower production during the first quarter of the year. On the other hand, on the London stock exchange the price of robusta coffee fell 3.7%, going from USD $ 1,512 / Ton on January 2 to USD $ 1,456 / Ton on March 29.
The ICO estimates that during the coffee year 2018/19 168.1 million bags will be produced, which means an increase of 1.5% compared to the year 2017/18, when 165.5 million bags were produced.
For its part, the ICO foresees that world consumption will be 165.0 million bags, with a growth of 2.2% compared to the previous year. With these estimates, the global balance of the market would be surplus in 3.1 million bags for the second consecutive year, after which in 2017/18
the balance gave a positive balance of 4.2 million bags. For its part, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA for its acronym in English) and the consultancy LMC forecast for 2018/19 a world production of 174.5 and 171.1 million bags, respectively. Regarding consumption, USDA estimates 163.6 million bags and LMC expects 165.0 million bags.
In this way, the global balance would be surplus in 10.9 million bags for USDA and 6.1 million bags for LMC.
World exports from March 2018 to February 2019 (latest available data) reached 125.1 million bags, increasing 3.0% compared to the same period of 2017/18. Within the Arabic, the Colombian Milds grew 3.5%, the Brazilian Naturals grew 8.0% and the Other Milds decreased 3.1%. On the other hand, exports of robusta coffee showed an increase of 2.7%.
During the first quarter of 2019, national coffee production reached 3.3 million bags, which means a decrease of 1.9% compared to the production of the same period of 2018 (3.4 million bags). In addition, the cumulative production during the last 12 months stood at 13.5 million bags, which represents a fall of 3.5% compared to what was registered in 2018. In this way, the national production of coffee remains relatively stable around of the historical maximums reached during the last four years.
The domestic base purchase price showed a volatile and downward trend during the first quarter of the year, as a result of the behavior of the international price. The domestic price of the coffee load decreased from $ 724,000 per dry parchment coffee load at the beginning of January to $ 695,000 at the end of March. At the beginning of April 2019, prices continued with a negative trend, registering the lowest values ​​so far this year.
As for the coffee harvest for 2019, this office estimates that it is between 13.9 and 14.7 million bags, with a greater probability of being located towards the middle part of the forecast. The materialization of a weak El Niño phenomenon in the coming months would favor the flowering of coffee plantations, which would give a boost to coffee production in the second half of the year.

Precio total por carga de 125 Kg de pergamino seco 17/01/2020 870.000 COP
Cierre de Bolsa ICE (Nueva York) 17/01/2020 -> MARZO US¢/lb $112.15
Cierre de Bolsa ICE (Nueva York) 17/01/2020 -> MAYO US¢/lb $114.45
Cierre de Bolsa ICE (Nueva York) 17/01/2020 -> JULIO US¢/lb 116.75